Why China Is a New Nexus of Innovation and Creativity 中国何以成为创新和创造力的新纽带 By Justin Leverenz, CFA, Director of Emerging Market Equities, Portfolio Manager and Bhavtosh Vajpayee, CFA, Senior Research Analyst Summary: Investor perceptions are still catching up to the reality of China’s global tech leadership. 投资者仍未完全认可中国全球科技领先地位 China’s rise as a global technology powerhouse is becoming broadly acknowledged, but the scale, nuance, and innovation encapsulated in that rise does not enjoy the same recognition. Indeed, many in the Western world remain fixated on a host of longstanding China stereotypes, for example, that its tech industry is thriving only because of intellectual property infringement and strict Internet regulation, known as the Great Firewall of China. 中国作为全球科技强国的崛起正得到广泛承认,但这种崛起所体现出的规模、细微差别和创新却没有得到同样的认可。事实上,西方世界的多人仍然对中国抱有成见 1.jpg The truth about China’s tech landscape is far more dynamic and, for investors, is yielding significant opportunities. In recent decades, China has essentially moved mountains when it comes to innovation, and has fostered an unparalleled technology ecosystem fueled by burgeoning competition, homegrown talent, and capital. 中国科技行业非常有活力,对投资者来说,正带来重大机遇。近几十年来,在创新方面,中国发生了不可思议的变化,并在蓬勃发展的竞争、本土人才和资本的推动下发展了一个无与伦比的技术生态系统。 Tracking China’s Rise as an Innovator 追溯中国作为创新者的崛起之路 About five years ago, trends that emerged in China began to shape the global tech landscape, a phenomenon dubbed “reverse innovation.” As a result, Silicon Valley companies have come to increasingly regard China as the laboratory for future innovation. Notable examples include Google’s establishment of an artificial intelligence (AI) lab in Beijing, as well as an alliance between Google and Tencent focused on cloud services. 大约五年前,中国崛起的趋势开始影响全球科技格局,这种现象被称为“向创新”。因此,硅谷公司越把中国视为未来创新的实验室。值得注意的例子包括谷歌在北京建立的人工智能(AI)实验室,以及谷歌与腾讯在云服务方面的联盟。 For a comparison, consider the growth in market value of Internet platforms in the United States and China. Circa 2013, Amazon, Google, and Facebook had a combined market capitalization approaching $500 billion. In contrast, China’s Tencent and Baidu together amounted to just over $100 billion, and Alibaba’s IPO was still a year away. Since then, the combined value of Amazon, Google, and Facebook has risen approximately 5x, but the combined value of Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu has risen approximately 9x. Without Alibaba, the collective value of Tencent and Baidu has still risen 5x. 我们来比较一下美国和中国互联网平台市场价值增长。大约在2013年,亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的总市值接近5000亿美元。相比之下,中国的腾讯和百度的总市值仅略高于1000亿美元,而阿里巴巴的IPO是在一年之后。此后,亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的总价值增长了约5倍,而腾讯、阿里巴巴和百度的总价值增长了约9倍。如果没有阿里巴巴,腾讯和百度的总市值增长仍为5倍。 An investor in China tech would thus have enjoyed twin benefits – the growth of existing publicly listed platforms, and the opportunities arising from new listings, the number of which appears set to accelerate. 因此,中国科技的投资者将享受到双重好处——现有公开上市平台的增长,以及新上市公司带来的机遇——这种公司的数量似乎将加速增长。 In 2013, China’s contribution to the global creation of unicorns (private companies valued above $1 billion) was negligible, while the United States accounted for a 75% share. In 2017, China created one-third of the new unicorns globally, (CB Insights, 2017) and 7 of the top 10 in terms of market capitalization. (Exhibit 1) Of the world’s six largest private tech companies valued at more than $30 billion, four are from China: Ant Financial, Didi-Chuxing, Toutiao, and Meituan (Uber and AirBnB are the other two).1 2013年,中国对全球独角兽企业(估值超过10亿美元的私营企业)占全球的份额微不足道,而美国75%。2017年,中国创造了全球三分之一的新独角兽企业(CB Insights, 2017),并且市值排名前十的独角兽公司中有7来自中国。全球市值超过300亿美元的六大民营科技公司中,有四家来自中国:蚂蚁金服、滴滴出行、今日头条和美团(另外两家是优步和爱彼迎)。 译文来源:三泰虎   译者:Jessica.Wu 12-other two.png The Key Drivers of China’s Tech Surge 中国科技热潮的主要推动力 China and the United States have three macro variables in common: enormous pools of talent, deep and large reservoirs of capital, and continental-size markets that permit massive scale. The intersection of these variables has enabled the propagation of unicorns in both countries, but it is the uniqueness of the market context within China that has spurred the adoption, breadth, and profitability of these businesses. 中国和美国有三个共同的宏观变量:庞大的人才储备,雄厚的资本储备以及大规模的市场。这些变量的交集使得独角兽企业在两国的发展成为可能正是中国市场环境的独特性,推动了这些企业的发展 In our view, the secret to China’s technology surge lies in three interlinked factors: (1) the legacy of traditional infrastructure and the consequent opportunities to “leapfrog,” (2) the innovation within business models that created solutions tailored for China’s realities, and (3) the speed and intensity of user adoption that has driven enormous growth and capital to fund this transformation. 在我们看来,中国技术飞速增长的秘诀在于三个相互关联的因素:(1)传统基础设施遗留问题和随之来的“跨越式发展”机遇;(2)商业模式的创新,为中国的现实问题打造了量身定做的解决方案(3)用户采纳的速度和密度,推动了急剧增长和资本发展,进而为转型提供了资金。
  1. Legacy of traditional infrastructure.
传统基础设施的遗留问题 Offline retail space in the United States is plentiful – about 50 square feet per person (Cushman & Wakefield, 2016). In China, that number is less than one square foot per person (Haver Analytics and Bernstein Research, 2017). It should come as no surprise, therefore, that e-commerce penetration in China is in the high teens, about twice that of the United States.2 What’s more, about 40% of incremental growth in retail sales is happening online, pointing to a likely doubling of e-commerce penetration in coming years. 美国的线下零售空间非常——人均约50平方英尺。在中国,人均还不到1平方英尺。因此,中国电商的渗透率大约是美国的两倍,也就不足为奇了。此外,大约40%的零售增量增长发生在线上,预示着未来几年电商的渗透率可能会翻一番。 Meanwhile, the average number of credit cards owned in the United States is about 2.5 cards per capita and 4.0 per household,( Statista, 2016 data) about 10 times the number in China. Thanks to the widespread availability of mobile payments, Chinese users now pay with cash less than one-third of the time3 and one-sixth of urban residents no longer consider it necessary to carry a wallet.4 (Exhibit 2) 与此同时,美国拥有的信用卡平均数量约为人均2.5张,平均每个家庭为4张(Statista, 2016),大约是中国的10倍。由于移动支付的广泛普及,中国用户现在用现金支付的不到三分之一,六分之一的城市居民认为没有必要再带钱包。 13-exhibit 2.png Legacy issues exist in businesses too. China’s per capita information technology spending is about one-eleventh of the United States’, (EITO, Statista, 2016) but with the country’s median age approaching 40 years, China is on a rapid drive to embrace automation and productivity tools. Enter cloud computing, which is being embraced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) on a mass scale, leapfrogging the era of client-server hardware and ERP platforms. With over 40 million SMEs,5 China’s industrial and services base is uniquely fragmented, creating further demand for platforms that enable businesses to reach their user base. 企业中也存在于遗留问题。中国人均信息技术支出约为美国的十一分之一(EITO, Statista, 2016),但随着中国的年龄中值接近40岁,中国正迅速采自动化和产能工具。中小型企业(SMEs)大规模采用云计算,跨越了客户-服务器硬件和ERP平台的时代。中国有4000多万家中小企业,其工业和服务基础是各不相同,这进一步增加了对平台的需求,使企业能够达到其用户基础。
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