中国人均GDP能在20年内赶上韩国吗

Will China catch up with South Korea in GDP per capita within 20 years? 中国的人均GDP在20年内赶上韩国吗? 港口 Quora评论翻译: Darrell Francis, lived in South Korea It depends on how you measure GDP. If you're using nominal GDP, it will be virtually impossible for China to catch-up with South Korea in 20 years. For China to reach the same level of GDP per capita as South Korea has today in 20 years, GDP per capita would need to grow by at least 10% every year. To match South Korea in 20 years would require greater sustained growth than China has ever seen. If you're using real GDP, the goal of surpassing South Korea becomes a little less daunting. For China's GDP per capita in 20 years to match South Korea's current GDP per capita, it would only require 6% annual growth, which is high, but possible. China's ability to surpass South Korea would then depend on how much South Korea grows over the next 20 years. Given that South Korea's GDP per capita is still growing at over 4% annually, this will be a challenge. Competition from China is unlikely to greatly diminish the South Korean economy. The growing economy of China means the opening up of a massive consumer market which is a major opportunity for both China and South Korea. There may be more Chinese products on the market, but the market will also be much larger. 这取决于你如何衡量GDP,如果衡量名义GDP,中国在20年内几乎不可能赶上韩国。中国要想在20年内达到韩国现在的人均GDP水平,其人均GDP每年至少需要增长10%。要在20年内赶上韩国,中国需要比以往任何时候都更快的持续增长。 如果你指的是以人均购买力来衡量的实际GDP,那超越韩国就不那么难了。中国的人均GDP要在20年内赶上韩国目前的人均GDP,只需要保持6%的年增长率,这虽然很高,但也是有可能的。中国超越韩国的能力将取决于韩国未来20年的增长速度。考虑到韩国的人均GDP仍在以每年超过4%的速度增长,这将是一个挑战。 来自中国的竞争不太可能大幅削弱韩国经济。中国经济的不断增长意味着开放庞大的消费市场,这对中韩两国都是一个重大机遇。虽然市场上可能会出现更多的中国产品,但市场也会大得多。   Glenn Luk, Invests in China Barring war or some enormous massive disaster befalling South Korea, no they won't. There is only one scenario where I can see them getting close and that is if the Koreas decide to re-unite.  Today, a hypothetical combined Korea would have 75 million people and per capita GDP (PPP adjusted) of around $23k [1].  China today has a per capita GDP of around $11k.  If China grows at 6% real and the combined Korea at 2%, my friend Math says they reach parity in 20 years. But this is also a very, very low probability scenario within a 20-year window.  The two Koreas have diverged so much the costs of reunification would be enormous. 除非韩国爆发战争或发生重大灾难,否则中国的人均GDP不可能赶上韩国。 在我看来,只有一种情况可以让他们赶上韩国,那就是朝鲜半岛决定重新统一。假设朝韩统一后的人口总数达到7500万,人均GDP(购买力平价调整后)约为2.3万美元。现在中国的人均GDP约为1.1万美元。如果中国的实际增长率为6%,朝韩统一后的增长率为2%,那他们的人均GDP将在20年内持平。 但在未来20年内,这种可能性非常低。朝韩两国分歧如此之大,统一的代价将是巨大的。 译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46436.html    译者:Jessica.Wu   Lee Szi Kiat Honestly? It is very, very hard to say. While the answers above are reasonable, I somehow do disagree, with respect of course. 老实说,这很难判断。虽然上面的回答合情合理,但我不敢苟同。 It seems to me that most of us, which is entirely human nature, to extrapolate indefinitely in the future, which is where we get all the "China surpassing USA" data. It might happen, OR it might not happen. It is set more than a decade into the future, we don't know. 在我看来,大多数人都会对未来进行无限推断(这完全是人类的本性),所以我们得到很多“中国将超过美国”的数据。这种情况有可能会发生,也可能不会发生。这是未来对几十年的推测,我们也不知道将来会如何。 Can you tell me what would happen tomorrow? An earthquake? A lottery win? Constipation? No. 你能告诉我明天会发生什么事吗?发生地震?中彩票?便秘?谁也不知道明天会发生什么。 My point is, China is growing reasonably fast now, but it may not be so in the future. When it reaches the point of maturity, which is now, it will slow down, as you can see now. China might hit a huge wall and fall into recession, which is also entirely possible. Much more of a probability then China never going through a recession. Growth rates will slow, everything will normalize. It is pointless to make judgements based on today's performance, because it might change tomorrow or even the next second. 我的观点是,中国现在正以相当快的速度增长,但未来可能不会如此。当增长到达顶点(也就是现在),它就会减慢,正如你现在看到的。中国可能会撞墙,然后陷入衰退,这是完全有可能的。更有可能的是,中国可能走不出衰退期。增长速度将放缓,一切都将正常化。根据现在的表现对未来做出判断是毫无意义的,明天甚至下一秒都有可能发生变化。 The best way we can predict, in my opinion, is that we look at data that contributes to the future. Such as demographics, which are absolutely essential (as shown in the case of Japan), investments in R&D and so on. 在我看来,预测的最好方式是着眼于那些对未来有贡献的数据。例如人口结构,这绝对是非常重要的(看看日本的例子),研发方面的投资等等。 I feel that China has too large of a population to satisfy all of its citizens needs. So to me, no, China might not be able to catch up to South Korea in per capita in 20 years or longer, accounting to the fact of inevitable negative shocks, ie. falling growth, recessions, demographics. 我觉得中国人口太多了,无法满足所有公民的需求。还有一些不可避免的负面冲击,比如增长下滑,衰退,人口结构等等,所以在我看来,中国可能无法在20年或更长的时间内赶上韩国的人均水平。   Karen Ip, studied at University of Melbourne Within 20 years? Definitely no. 1.No matter how much China will and has achieved, whenever you have to divide that amount into 1.4 billion, it will not be a huge number. 2.The last recorded GDP per capita for Korea is USD26,152.03 in Y2017, whilst China is USD7329.09. South Korea is 3.56 times of GDP per capita of China. 3.In Y2012, the Chinese government announced their target of doubling their GDP per capita based on GDP per capita in Y2010 (which is USD4,560.51) in Y2020. (That is, To reach USD9,121.02 per capita). 4.Assuming Y2038 is the 20 years deadline, and China is able to double her GDP per capita every 10 years since Y2018 (which is unlikely because the economic growth rate is slowing down as it gets more developed), China’s GDP per capita will be around 31,075.34 — here is the most optimistic estimate. 5.Korea GDP per capita with an assumption of a modest annual growth of 2% will reach USD38,860.54 20 years later. 6.I think it will make more sense if one compare a large mega city in China ( like Shanghai, Shenzhen) to similar population of South Korea will be more appropriate measure. 20年?绝对不可能。 1.无论中国取得多大的成就,你把这个数字除以14亿,都会变成一个不起眼的数字。 2.韩国2017年的人均GDP是26152.03美元,而中国的人均GDP是7329.09美元。韩国人均GDP是中国人均GDP的3.56倍。 3.2012年,中国宣布到2020年实现人均GDP比2010年(4560.51美元)翻一番的目标,即达到人均9121.02美元。 4.假设自2018年起,中国人均GDP每10年翻一番(不过这是不太可能的,随着经济的发展,经济增速正在放缓),到20年后,即到2038年,中国的人均GDP将达到31075.34美元左右。这是最乐观的估计。 5.韩国的人均GDP,假设年增长率为2%,20年后将达到38860.54美元。 6.我认为,将中国的大城市(如上海、深圳)与人口相当的韩国城市进行比较,会更有意义,也更合适。   Sol Pao, Assistant Professor at China University of Technology (2004-present) I will say it’s a highly possible scenario. 我认为这是非常有可能的。 Again, I will recommend this article first:$123,000,000,000,000* The author Robert Fogel is “director of the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and winner of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics.” This article was published in 2010 - when China’s GDP was just one third of now. Remember that, and have a look on how those netizens criticize him. They laugh at the economist, say he must be a fool or something more mean. See what happened eight years on. 首先,我将推荐你看看这篇文章《¥123,000,000,000,000》,作者罗伯特·福格尔是“芝加哥大学布斯商学院人口经济学中心主任,1993年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。” 这篇文章发表于2010年,当时中国的GDP只有现在的三分之一,福格尔教授预测中国经济2040年总量将达到123万亿美元。记得么,当时那些网民是如何抨击他的。他们嘲笑福格尔,说他一定是个傻子。看看八年后发生了什么。 Then, see how President Trump do to smaller countries. Big country have a lot advantage to small one. Big country have bigger market and stronger army, and the small one can just bite the smaller pie after the big one was fulled. It’s the harsh reality, and it’s also the reason that makes European countries try to unite - if they could. When compared with the USA or USSR, those previous powers in Europe is just not big enough. 然后,看看特朗普总统是如何对待更小的国家的。和小国相比,大国具备很多优势,庞大的市场,强大的军队,大国吃饱了之后,小国只能吃剩下的。这是残酷的现实,也是促使欧洲国家努力团结起来的原因——如果他们能做到的话。与美国或苏联相比,以前的欧洲大国只是不够强大。 Now, even Germany is just like a province in China, and South Korea is more so, i.e.. Guangdong Province in southern China have twice her population and equal her GDP. 现在,就连德国也就相当于中国的一个省份,韩国更是如此。例如,广东省的人口是韩国的两倍,GDP和韩国相当。 Now, not just Robert Fogel, but also Graham Allison, David Daokui Li, Justin Yifu Lin, and many others, also expect a Chinese GDP three times of the USA in 2040. China is beating South Korea in many industrial sectors, and I won’t see any possibility for Korea to escape it. 如今,不仅罗伯特•福格尔、格雷厄姆•艾莉森、李稻葵、林毅夫等许多经济学家都预计,到2040年中国的GDP将是美国的三倍。中国许多工业领域已经超过了韩国,我认为韩国也无法避免被超越的命运。 Biggest country grasps the highest, most profitable industries, like the USA did. China will also follow this way. This reality means a lot for smaller countries, but it’s the truth. 最强的国家往往掌握着利润最高的产业,比如美国,中国也将这么做。这一现实对小国来说很不利,但这就是事实。
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